adminThe Will Scott column: analysis of Millwall’s next three opponents – and checking in with the Opta Supercomputer
INTERNATIONAL breaks can really drag on.
It seems like each break, engagement farmers on social media have to plumb deeper and deeper depths for content (although this can give rise to some fantastic trends – I really enjoyed the Barclaysmen one from last year).
Certainly, the football on display usually offers little to get excited about, and I’d much rather get back on with the usual Championship schedule.
The break, however, was probably a welcome one for Millwall, who now have nearly everyone back in training ahead of a gruelling slate of games to end the month.
The Championship table is still in flux, but there is still a kernel of truth in the current standings. Will all of Queens Park Rangers, Stoke City or Leicester City be in the top six come the end of the season? Probably not, but they have started well, and the Lions have to play all three in the space of eight days.
Mercifully, all three games are in London, and the run of fixtures will give Millwall the chance to fix their still below-par record at The Den this season.
They have already gone some way to rectify their early-season missteps with two wins in their last three in SE16, but 3-0, 2-0 and 4-0 losses will only be wiped away from the forefront of Lions fans’ minds once Millwall have eked out more positive results in front of their home support.
A closer examination of their next three opponents also suggests it is not quite as daunting a task as it initially appears.
Per Football Reference, Millwall are currently tenth in the league in expected goal difference per 90 with +0.04 (Coventry City lead this stat by a country mile), suggesting that they just about create more chances than their opposition.
In comparison, QPR are sixteenth (-0.17 per 90), Stoke are eleventh (+0.03 per 90), and Leicester are nineteenth (-0.33 per 90).
This stat is susceptible to statistical noise early in the season (outlier results can heavily skew the data with only nine games played), and expected goals do not tell the entire story of a match, nor do they take into account gamestate (teams losing heavily can rack up essentially meaningless xG as they chase games), but it does suggest that all three teams’ current position do not accurately convey how strong they are.
Data from @blue_breakdown on X also supports the idea that QPR and Leicester, in particular, have not put in performances that match their league position.
The numbers are a little hard to parse at first, but the standout data points (other than Millwall’s remarkably good pressing numbers and expected threat for/against) for me are: Leicester ranking bottom of the league in expected goals per shot and eighteenth in xG, despite having the sixth most goals in the league, and QPR’s swathe of below-par numbers.
Leicester’s weaknesses, in particular, seem to match up well with Millwall’s strengths – they are the second-worst team in the league in letting the opposition win the ball high up the pitch, and the Lions are the best team in the league at winning it high.
Expect Alex Neil’s side, especially at The Den, to be very aggressive out of possession against the Foxes.
QPR’s main thorn seems to be allowing teams to move the ball up the pitch and into dangerous areas, which both the eye test and the underlying data suggest Millwall have been very good at. What Millwall have been weaker at is converting that into clear-cut chances, and Neil’s challenge over the break has been to ensure the ruthlessness his side showed against West Bromwich Albion is the norm rather than a fluke.
Stoke look to be better value for their league position, especially their goalscoring numbers, but their defence looks to have overperformed. They have conceded the fewest goals in the division, but are average when it comes to preventing opponents from creating chances. Whether Millwall can capitalise on that discrepancy remains to be seen, although fans should have a better idea after the Lions’ trip to Loftus Road.
The data I have examined is not the rule of law – football matches are far too fluid and the Championship is far too competitive for games to play out in a routine and ordered manner, but it does illustrate where Millwall might look to take advantage of their opponents – and whether the Lions have been playing better football.
The Opta Supercomputer, which I like to check in with at points throughout the season, has a differing view – it thinks Leicester is the second-best team in the league, Millwall the ninth, QPR the tenth, and Stoke the thirteenth.
It also suggests that the Lions have a 23.06 per cent chance of making the play-offs (and a 2.82 per cent chance of winning the title!).
The wide spread of possibilities across Millwall’s predicted finish (the computer thinks the Lions have more than a 2 per cent chance of finishing anywhere from first to 22nd) means it is way too early to draw much from that percentage, but it is encouraging that it thinks Neil’s side are firmly among the chasing pack.
Millwall will now take on three of its fellow chasers – where the Lions sit after that stretch should give the computer, and fans, a better sense of where they might go this season.
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